Super funky shapeoko 3 problems

I drew a circle in carbide create, gave it a super normal toolpath, and it became a lemon.
I don’t know why my shapeoko changed its shape.
ALSO one it got to about 80% instead of going deeper, it started just tracing my project in the air about 1/4 inch above my project.

I was doing this as a test, because I have had the floating problem in the past, and my projects are always becoming misshapen, I have yet to make a successful cut. I figured a simple circle would be a good test, and I was right, somethings not right, and I have no idea how to fix it.

That looks like a mechanical issue.
Loose v wheels?
Loose set screw?
Open log window?
Collet loose?
Work shifting?

Im curious: before checking any of the above things: if this was an inside cut, would an outside cut be the same elliptically? or mirrored?

UPDATE:
I ran the test again with the SAME EXACT file, and this time it cut far deeper than it was supposed to, when last time it did not cut deep enough. still had the same oddly mishapen circle though.

I then ran a similar test, this time a small square, but it became a rectangle, and did not cut deep enough.

I do not have a small enough hex wrench to tighten the set screws, I assume that is the problem with the z axis, but either the x or y axis is producing an unchanging problem, I suspect it is the x axis halting prematurely, not slipping because the problem is unchanging.

I had very similar problems with cutting circles when I first got my unit. I didn’t understand the importance of the set screws being set properly, but that was the root of my problem. It could also be the cause of the z axis depth not being consistent. You might want to also check the belt tension for the z plate. It could be too tight or too loose.

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Please see Shapeoko CNC Router, Rigid, Accurate, Reliable, and Affordable for a list of the needed tools.

In this case:

1.5mm Allen wrench — used for the M3 set screws in metric bore pulleys
1/16" Allen wrench — (Imperial) set screw in 1/4" and 5mm pulleys. Note: This is only 5% larger than the 1.5mm and in many cases will fit, and fit more securely, allowing more torque to be applied.