Realistic repeatability expectations?

That is an unusually large delta, in my experience.

It is possible that your machine didn’t zero very effectively for one of the two startups.

Have you checked your belt tensions, ensured the belt pulley set screws are tight and checked V Wheel tensions?

When I need to run paths on the same workpiece after a power cycle I prefer to check the X, Y zero before starting the job as this does sometimes happen. I leave the X, Y zero corner of the stock as late as I can in the machining process to allow me to check or reset the zero point.

Alternatively, if this is a roughing followed by finishing toolpath then you could just leave about 0.025" stock to leave on the roughing toolpath to ensure you have enough to trim in the finishing toolpaths.

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